What do I agree with? Well, most of it. I'm doing 40% win32, 40% Kylix (all my web stuff), 20% .Net (mostly Compact Framework), but I don't this reflects the average Delphi usrs. 90% of the companies I do training or consulting for are Win32 shops. Most of those 10% doing both Win32 and .Net use Delphi for the former and Visual Studio for the latter. And (with the exception of one company) they use only the ASP.NET part of .NET
What I do not agree with? I think we have to take more into the picture different types of development, in particular server side web development, which is growing at a very steady rate (AJAX, Ruby, PHP... not only ASP.NET). I consider .NET mostly a server side development system: is ASP.NET is much more relevant than WinForms, both for Visual Studio and for BDS developers. Is this going to change with Avalon (or WPF)? I doubt. My impression is that Avalon (now known as Windows Presentation Framework) is mostly targeting Flash and Web users, and in the words of Microsoft experts, it is not suited for the user interface of business/database oriented applications.
In other words, Delphi Win32 is still the best tool for client side (standalone utilities) and client/server (business data base apps). In this realm, Delphi for .Net and Kylix are much less relevant.
But if the world is moving to the web: has Delphi anything to offer? It might become an ASP.NET tool, but only if they can avoid following Microsoft at a distance, which is pointless. It might become a way to build PHP modules, as Simon suggests. I have my own idea (which will soon come out in another post). In any case, this is the area Delphi suffers and is loosing developers. Not in the user interface side (at least if you don't consider the CF, which seems still a minor platform).